RIADeFi
Refusal file · other

Why Ketju rejected Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC)

Memo v1Published by Ketju Research

A registry memo, published verbatim and versioned. Superseded versions are recorded, never edited away. A rejection is a judgment for Ketju's client base and thesis, not a universal safety claim. Not investment, legal, tax, or compliance advice.

The memo

REJECTED ON A COMPLETED CUSTODY-CONCENTRATION EVENT, not a pending risk. WBTC is an ERC-20 minted 1:1 against BTC held by authorized custodians under a multisig; only KYC'd Merchants mint or redeem at par, so a retail or advisor position exits through secondary-market liquidity, not the custody channel. The August 2024 controversy — BitGo proposing to hand a BiT Global joint venture, linked to TRON founder Justin Sun, two of three custody keys — was already enough for MakerDAO/Sky to vote 88% to offboard WBTC collateral and for Aave's risk providers to call the concentration "an unacceptable level of risk." Reporting through 2026 confirms that transition completed: BiT Global now holds the user key and backup key, BitGo Inc. holds only the remaining US-based key. The scenario every major DeFi risk desk flagged as disqualifying in 2024 is now the live custody structure, not a proposal. That converts a risk into a standing fact.

What would reopen the file

  • BitGo Inc. or another US/EU-regulated custodian independent of BiT Global regains at least 2 of 3 custody keys
  • An independent, named proof-of-reserves attestation, not self-reported by BiT Global, confirms 1:1 BTC backing on a recurring monthly basis
  • No confirmed instance of BiT Global or an affiliate restricting or delaying redemption for 12 consecutive months after the transition completed
  • A major DeFi risk provider that downgraded WBTC in 2024-2026 formally reverses that assessment with published reasoning

Facts on file

Verdict
Rejected
Exposure
other
Chains examined
Ethereum
Instruments
WBTC
Memo version
v1
Reviewed
Next review

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