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Ketju research: Venus Protocol

Adverse research assessmentPublished by Ketju Research

This file describes the economic claim, control, loss, and exit evidence. Firm-shelf policy is a separate conclusion; client action and amount belong to the advisor. Not investment, legal, tax, or compliance advice.

Research summary

ADVERSE RESEARCH ASSESSMENT on loss record and chain policy. The earlier memo mixed protocol losses with a September 2025 phishing compromise of an individual user and overstated the May 2021 shortfall as $95M; Venus's own post-mortem puts protocol loss near $77M. The corrected primary record remains disqualifying: the 2021 XVS collateral event, the May 2022 LUNA oracle freeze and roughly $14.2M shortfall, the 2023 snBNB oracle shortfall, the 2025 wUSDM donation attack with $716,789 net loss, the October 2025 WBETH oracle-depeg liquidations requiring compensation, and the March 2026 THE supply-cap bypass and price manipulation. Venus V4 adds isolated pools, multi-source oracle validation, risk funds and multiple governance routes, but the assigned Core Pool still mutualizes collateral, oracle and liquidity risk across markets. In March 2026 governance proposed repaying about $2.20M of remaining Core Pool bad debt across 19 assets from treasury and risk-fund resources. BNB Smart Chain is independently outside this mandate, and the repeated realized shortfalls make the refusal stronger.

Observable review triggers

  • A named Venus pool operates on an approved chain for 24 consecutive months without new bad debt, oracle-caused liquidation or supplier loss
  • Per-market bad debt, liquidation, utilization and withdrawal-failure history is published and reconciles to on-chain state
  • Every listed collateral, oracle source, guardian, risk steward and timelock authority is documented and reconciles to deployed contracts
  • Readily realizable pool risk-fund assets exceed the written stress loss without discretionary treasury support
  • Proposed-size stablecoin withdrawal and collateral liquidation tests pass the written time and slippage limits under stressed utilization

Facts on file

Research assessment
Adverse
Client selection
Not considered
Exposure
stable lending
Chains examined
BSC
Reviewed
Next review

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